Ghanaian farmers could enjoy some relief from high agricultural input costs in 2027 as global fertiliser prices are projected to decline by 12 per cent, following an estimated 14 per cent increase in 2026.
The projected reduction could lower production costs, improve farmers’ access to essential inputs and support efforts to boost food production, although the extent of the benefit will depend on how quickly international price reductions are reflected in Ghana’s domestic market.
According to the World Bank Group’s October 2026 Commodity Outlook Report, the anticipated decline will be driven by easing production costs, recovering supplies and increased exports from producers outside the Gulf region.
The report indicates that the global fertiliser price index has already begun to ease, falling by 22 per cent in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter. Prices continued to decline in October, reversing increases recorded in the second quarter following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the expected recovery, fertiliser prices are projected to remain relatively high throughout 2026 because of sharp increases in the first half of the year.
Urea prices are expected to average 21 per cent higher in 2026 before declining by 16 per cent in 2027.
Di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) prices are projected to rise by seven per cent this year before dropping by 18 per cent next year, while muriate of potash (MOP) prices are expected to increase by 10 per cent in 2026 before falling by nine per cent in 2027.
For Ghana, the projected decline could be significant because the country depends heavily on imported fertilisers to support agricultural production.
Lower international prices could reduce the cost of supplying essential nutrients to farmers, particularly smallholder producers who face financial constraints when purchasing inputs for cultivation.
However, the expected relief will depend largely on whether importers, distributors and local retailers pass the savings on to farmers.
Government procurement strategies could also influence how much farmers benefit. Aligning fertiliser purchases with periods of lower international prices and favourable shipping costs could help reduce import expenses and improve affordability during the 2027 planting season.
The anticipated decline could also ease pressure on government agricultural support programmes, including the Planting for Food and Jobs framework, by reducing the cost of procuring subsidised inputs.
However, the World Bank has warned that the outlook remains exposed to significant risks that could push prices higher than projected.
Renewed conflict in the Middle East could disrupt shipping routes and increase energy costs, which directly influence fertiliser manufacturing expenses.
Export restrictions imposed by major producing countries could also constrain global supply and trigger renewed price volatility.
For Ghanaian farmers, therefore, the projected 12 per cent decline represents a potential opportunity rather than a guaranteed reduction in local fertiliser prices.
Exchange rate movements, port clearance costs, import arrangements and the effectiveness of domestic distribution and subsidy systems will determine whether the expected global savings translate into lower prices for farmers.
