Ghana’s cocoa sector is facing renewed pressure from weather disruptions, crop disease and illegal mining, with the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) projecting that cocoa production will decline by at least 16% in the 2026/27 crop season.
The projected decline is expected to affect the 12-month season beginning in September 2026, particularly in the Western and Western North regions, which together produce more than half of the country’s cocoa output.
COCOBOD said the outlook has been weakened by a combination of possible El Niño conditions, excessive rainfall in May and June, and the cocoa tree’s natural fruit-bearing cycle, which alternates between high and low production years.
According to the regulator, farmers in the two key producing regions are already experiencing low cherelle loads, indicating that fewer young cocoa pods are surviving to maturity.
The production outlook has also been worsened by swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and the expansion of illegal mining activities, commonly known as galamsey.
COCOBOD noted that illegal mining continues to threaten cocoa production as farms are increasingly being taken over by mining operations.
The regulator’s warning comes after cocoa farmers in the Western and Western North regions reported significantly reduced pod counts during the current season.
In response, COCOBOD said it has intensified measures to reduce production losses, including the rehabilitation of swollen shoot-infected farms in the Western North Region, expanded insecticide and fungicide spraying, and the reintroduction of a nationwide free fertiliser distribution programme for the 2026/27 crop year.
The projected decline in Ghana’s cocoa output comes amid broader concerns about cocoa production across West Africa, where adverse weather conditions and disease pressures have affected production forecasts.
Neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is also expected to record a production decline of more than 10% next season, raising concerns about tighter global cocoa supplies.
The latest outlook underscores the growing vulnerability of Ghana’s cocoa industry to climate variability, disease outbreaks and environmental degradation, even as authorities seek to protect one of the country’s most important export sectors.
