Global energy markets face rising prices after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes, according to Fitch Ratings.
In its latest analysis, the London-based credit rating agency revised its 2026 Brent crude oil forecast upward to $70 per barrel from $63, citing escalating geopolitical tensions linked to ongoing conflicts in Iran. Fitch noted that while the price spike may be temporary, the “geopolitical risk premium is substantial,” with uncertainty over how long the disruption will last.
The report also highlighted that European gas prices have surged amid the supply disruption, compounded by cold weather and lower shipments from the United States. Fitch expects that Henry Hub natural gas prices in 2027-2028 will increase as a result of rising domestic demand and the economics of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Before the conflict, around 20 million barrels of crude and petroleum products per day—roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade—passed through the strait. Fitch warned that any extended closure could put further upward pressure on global oil and gas prices, while alternative export routes remain limited.
The agency’s findings underscore the vulnerability of international energy markets to geopolitical tensions and the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz in maintaining global energy supply.
