Ghana’s economy is projected to expand by 6.4% ± 0.5 percentage points in 2026, supported by strong first-quarter performance and broad-based growth across key sectors, according to investment research firm IC Insights.
The forecast follows a 6.4% year-on-year real GDP growth recorded in the first quarter of 2026, slightly higher than the 6.2% achieved in the same period of 2025. The firm says the data signals sustained economic momentum, with activity extending beyond the extractive sector into consumer-driven industries.
IC Insights noted that the performance is likely to surpass the government’s current below-trend growth target of 4.8%, adding that it expects an upward revision during the mid-year budget review in July 2026.
“We thus maintain our FY2026 overall growth forecast of 6.4% ± 0.5pp and expect the authorities to raise their target during the mid-year budget review in July 2026,” the firm stated.
Sectoral breakdowns for the first quarter show the industry sector expanding by 6.9%, compared to 4.1% in the same period last year. Services remained the strongest contributor, growing by 7.1%, while agriculture slowed to 4.0% from 6.6% in 2025.
Within services, the trades sub-sector recorded a sharp rebound of 9.0%, up from 3.3% a year earlier, while ICT grew significantly by 25.2%, reflecting continued digital transformation. Transport and haulage also posted strong growth of 13.0%, up from 8.4% in the previous year.
IC Insights attributed the expansion in trade and consumer activity to easing inflationary pressures, noting that inflation declined to 3.2% in March 2026 from 22.4% a year earlier, boosting household and business spending.
However, the agriculture sector was weighed down by weaker performance in cocoa and fishing activities. Cocoa growth slowed to 3.8% year-on-year, despite policy interventions aimed at revitalising the sector, although the slowdown was partly attributed to a strong performance base in 2025.
Despite the agriculture slowdown, IC Insights expects the sector to maintain positive growth in 2026, supported by ongoing policy measures, including planned financing initiatives such as a US$1.0 billion cedi-denominated domestic bond for crop purchases.
Overall, the firm says Ghana’s economic outlook remains positive, driven by stabilising macroeconomic conditions, improving consumer demand, and strong performance in services and industry sectors.
