As the World Bank warns of a projected 3.6 percentage point rise in poverty in Nigeria by 2027, the focus is shifting from the bleak outlook to the urgent need for structural reforms and inclusive policy solutions.
In its newly released Africa’s Pulse report, unveiled during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC, the global financial institution emphasized that Nigeria’s heavy dependence on natural resources and ongoing economic fragility are undermining efforts to reduce poverty—even amid signs of economic growth in non-oil sectors.
Despite stronger-than-expected economic performance in late 2024, particularly outside the oil sector, Nigeria is still categorized among “resource-rich, fragile” states—countries where the benefits of resource wealth are often eroded by weak institutions, mismanagement, and conflict vulnerability.
According to the report, Nigeria and similar nations are the only group in Sub-Saharan Africa projected to experience a rise in poverty over the next five years. In contrast, non-resource-rich countries are expected to continue on a path of steady poverty reduction, buoyed by gains in agriculture and improved governance.
“This follows a well-established pattern,” the report states. “Resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates.”
To address this troubling trend, the World Bank is calling for a shift in approach. It recommends that Nigeria strengthen its fiscal management systems, improve transparency, and foster a more inclusive economic model that ensures benefits reach the most vulnerable.
Also critical, the report highlights, is the need for Nigeria to “develop a stronger fiscal contract with citizens.” This implies not just better tax and revenue collection, but a renewed focus on delivering public services and social investments that directly impact everyday life for Nigerians.
The call to action is clear: resource wealth alone is not enough. Without robust institutions, targeted poverty-alleviation programmes, and sustainable investment in human capital, the country risks reversing decades of progress.
As oil prices fluctuate and fiscal pressures mount, experts say Nigeria must explore long-term strategies—like diversifying its economy, strengthening local governance, and investing in education and agriculture—to avoid deepening inequality and social unrest.
The report’s broader data also paints a stark picture of global inequality. Sub-Saharan Africa remains home to 80% of the world’s extreme poor, with just four countries—including Nigeria—accounting for half of the region’s 560 million people living in extreme poverty in 2024.
But it’s not all bleak. The report points to tangible progress in non-resource-rich, non-fragile African countries that have successfully reduced poverty through better policy execution and targeted investments. It’s a roadmap Nigeria could follow—if the political will is strong.
