Ghana’s public debt surged sharply in the third quarter of 2025 — rising by GH¢71.6 billion and pushing the national debt stock to GH¢684.6 billion as of September — but new Bank of Ghana data shows that the broader debt trajectory remains downward despite the short-term spike.
The latest Summary of Economic and Financial Data, covering figures up to November 2025, reveals an unusual trend: Ghana is simultaneously recording a quarterly debt increase and a substantial year-on-year and year-to-date debt reduction.
The debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 48.9% in September, up from 43.8% in June, driven mainly by external debt revaluations. Yet, zooming out to the nine-month and twelve-month windows, the figures tell a different story.
Why Debt Rose in Q3 — But Fell Over the Year
Economists attribute the Q3 jump to exchange rate effects rather than new borrowing. External debt jumped from GH¢300.3 billion to GH¢367 billion, reflecting currency adjustments as the cedi weakened.
But when assessed over longer periods, external debt exhibited drastic declines:
Year-to-date reduction: GH¢432 billion
Year-on-year reduction: GH¢508.6 billion
Share of GDP now: 26.2%
These contradictions underscore the impact of debt restructuring, valuation adjustments, and principal write-downs under Ghana’s ongoing IMF-backed programme.
Domestic Debt Holds Steady
Domestic debt remained stable, rising marginally from GH¢312.7 billion to GH¢317.6 billion. The slight uptick is linked to refinancing operations and the gradual rebuilding of the domestic bond market after the 2023 Domestic Debt Exchange Programme.
Domestic debt trends remain moderate over both the nine-month and annual horizons, signalling a relative stabilisation of government borrowing behaviour.
A Mixed Picture — But Signs of Consolidation
Although the Q3 debt jump naturally raises concerns over fiscal pressure, the Bank of Ghana’s report indicates that Ghana’s debt position today is still GH¢125.4 billion lower than it was in September 2024.
Between January and September alone, the country shaved GH¢67.5 billion off its total public debt.
Analysts say these long-term declines reflect:
Rearranged repayments under external debt restructuring
Suspended or reduced interest payments
IMF-programme fiscal discipline
Gains from rebased nominal GDP, now estimated at GH¢1.4 trillion
Looking Ahead
The temporary spike in the third quarter serves as a reminder of how vulnerable Ghana’s debt metrics remain to exchange rate fluctuations. However, the broader fiscal story suggests the country is still on a consolidation path, with the overall debt burden trending downward compared to last year.
Financial watchers caution that sustained progress will depend on stabilising the cedi, keeping expenditure in check, and securing final agreements with remaining external creditors.
