Ghana’s economic recovery is gaining traction as Fitch Solutions projects stronger growth for 2025, buoyed by robust agricultural performance, easing inflation, and a stable local currency.
In its September 2025 Monthly Outlook, the UK-based research firm revised Ghana’s growth forecast upward to 4.9% from 4.2%, citing improving macroeconomic fundamentals despite ongoing fiscal consolidation and high interest rates.
According to Fitch, Ghana’s economy showed strong resilience in the first quarter of the year, expanding by 5.3% year-on-year, largely driven by improved agricultural output and steady performance in the services sector.
Recent data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) also highlighted agriculture as the key growth engine, expanding by 8.0% in July 2025, a sharp rebound from 2.4% recorded in the same period last year.
The report noted that Ghana’s fiscal discipline and monetary tightening have started to yield results, with inflation expected to decline to 8.0% by the end of 2025, from 11.5% in August—the lowest level in four years.
Fitch expects growth to remain solid at around 5.0% in 2026, supported by lower borrowing costs, monetary easing, and increased public spending as Ghana’s IMF programme approaches completion.
The brighter forecast contrasts slightly with the IMF’s 4.0% growth estimate and the government’s 4.4% target, signalling renewed investor optimism about Ghana’s near-term prospects.
Fitch said a firm cedi, coupled with declining global energy prices, is expected to boost consumer confidence and domestic demand heading into 2026.
However, the research firm cautioned that Ghana’s growth momentum could face risks if fiscal pressures mount or if the currency weakens amid external shocks.
“The country’s outlook remains positive, but sustaining progress will require continued policy discipline, structural reforms, and a stable exchange rate environment,” the report added.
Fitch’s revised projection adds to growing signs that Ghana’s economy is gradually emerging from its recent slowdown, with policymakers now focusing on consolidating stability while stimulating inclusive growth.
