A policy review by the Centre for Environmental Management and Sustainable Energy (CEMSE) is calling for a significant reduction in electricity tariffs, arguing that consumers may have overpaid about GHS1.5 billion in the final quarter of 2025.
The group contends that improved macroeconomic conditions — including a stronger cedi and lower inflation — justify a double-digit tariff cut of roughly 11 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
Central to the dispute is the tariff-setting approach of the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission (PURC). In its Q4 2025 calculations, PURC applied a projected exchange rate of GHS11.9735 to the dollar and later adjusted it to GHS12.3715 to factor in under-recovery claims.
However, CEMSE’s analysis indicates that the actual average exchange rate during the period was GHS10.8733 to the dollar — suggesting what it describes as an over-recovery of GHS1.1002 per dollar. Applying this variance to total quarterly electricity consumption of 6,459 gigawatt-hours — with 60 percent of generation costs assumed to be dollar-denominated — the think tank estimates that consumers paid roughly GHS1.5 billion more than utilities ultimately required.
The review also questions inflation assumptions used in the Q4 model. While PURC factored in an annual inflation rate of 12.43 percent, the actual quarterly average stood at 6.6 percent — almost half the projected figure.
Despite several tariff increases in 2025, revenue performance at the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) has fluctuated. ECG reportedly recorded GHS1.4 billion in revenue in April 2025 before the first round of hikes. Revenue dipped to GHS1.3 billion in May following a 14.75 percent increase, rose to GHS1.6 billion in June, and dropped again to GHS1.3 billion in August despite further upward adjustments.
With the exchange rate currently hovering around GHS10.99 to the dollar and projected inflation for Q1 2026 estimated at 3.4 percent, CEMSE argues that maintaining existing tariff levels would undermine the credibility of the quarterly tariff review framework.
The group is urging regulators to formally acknowledge any over-recoveries and credit consumers before introducing new tariff decisions, warning that failure to act could weaken public trust and add financial strain to households and businesses.
