Ghana’s debt burden is expected to edge upward in the coming year, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 53.0% by the end of 2026, compared to 45.3% recorded in 2025.
The projection appears in the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor Report released during the 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C.
While the report does not provide detailed reasons for the anticipated increase, it indicates that the figures are based on a post-debt restructuring scenario, suggesting adjustments following Ghana’s recent debt treatment programme.
The forecast comes against the backdrop of significant fluctuations in Ghana’s debt indicators in recent years. In 2024, the debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 61.8%, with total public debt estimated at GH¢726.7 billion. By 2025, this had improved to 45.3%, supported by a reduction in total debt to GH¢641 billion.
Despite the recent downward trend, the IMF projection suggests a temporary reversal before a projected easing to 50.7% in 2027.
Economic analysts note that Ghana’s debt path remains sensitive to several variables, including new borrowing, exchange rate volatility, and the pace of economic growth. A weaker cedi or slower expansion in GDP could place upward pressure on the ratio, even if nominal debt remains stable.
In April 2026, the government returned to long-term domestic financing with a GH¢2.7 billion seven-year bond issuance at a 12.5% coupon rate, signalling a gradual shift in post-debt exchange market rebuilding efforts.
According to the Ghana Statistical Service, the size of the economy has grown to an estimated GH¢1.4 trillion, up from GH¢1.1 trillion in 2024, providing a broader base for debt measurement.
Finance Minister Dr. Ato Forson has outlined a fiscal strategy aimed at stabilising the debt trajectory. Key measures include increased reliance on concessional financing, debt reprofiling, buyback operations, rebuilding the Sinking Fund, and improved transparency in public debt reporting.
He has stated that government policy is focused on “managing debt, not being managed by it,” with a medium-term objective of returning Ghana to a moderate risk of debt distress by 2028.
Although Ghana remains classified as a debt-distressed economy by the IMF, recent improvements have been acknowledged, with expectations that sustained reforms could support a gradual recovery in debt sustainability indicators.
On the global front, the IMF warns that public debt pressures are intensifying, projecting global debt to reach about 100% of GDP by 2029, driven by rising interest costs and increased fiscal demands across economies.
