Fuel consumers may soon feel renewed pressure at the pumps as the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) projects marginal increases in petroleum prices from February 16, 2026.
According to the Chamber’s latest pricing outlook report, sighted by Joy Business, this will be the second consecutive upward adjustment, driven largely by the depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi and rising international crude oil and refined product prices.
Currency Pressure Driving Costs
The Ghana cedi has faced sustained pressure since the beginning of the year, as businesses increased foreign exchange demand to restock and multinational firms repatriated dividends.
Data from the Bank of Ghana show the cedi depreciated by about 4 per cent against the US dollar in January, with some commercial bank data indicating a slightly higher depreciation of 4.16 per cent. During the February 1 pricing window alone, the cedi slipped from GH¢10.90 to GH¢10.98 to the dollar.
This currency weakness has compounded rising global oil prices. International crude has climbed by more than 5 per cent, trading close to $70 per barrel, while finished petroleum products have also recorded notable gains — petrol up 4.17 per cent, gas oil 5.57 per cent, and LPG 6.18 per cent.
Projected Pump Prices
COMAC projections indicate:
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Petrol could rise by up to 1.97 per cent to about GH¢11.97 per litre.
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Diesel may increase by 2.73 per cent to around GH¢13.09 per litre.
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LPG is expected to climb by 3.26 per cent to roughly GH¢13.93 per kilogram.
However, the Chamber noted that an oversupply of refined products on the local market may cushion the impact, potentially resulting in only slight adjustments at filling stations. Intense competition among oil marketing companies (OMCs) could also delay or moderate price changes, as some players may wait to see how market leaders respond.
Price Floor Compliance
Beyond the projected hikes, COMAC has reminded OMCs and LPG marketing companies to comply strictly with the minimum ex-pump price floors set under the Petroleum Products Pricing Guidelines by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA).
The new price floors for the February 16 window are:
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Petrol (PMS): GH¢10.24 per litre
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Diesel (AGO): GH¢11.34 per litre
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LPG: GH¢9.43 per kilogram
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Marine Gas Oil (Local): GH¢10.45 per litre
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Kerosene: GH¢9.21 per litre
The Chamber clarified that these floors exclude premiums charged by international oil traders and operational margins determined independently by industry players.
Balancing Stability and Competition
While COMAC says it has received assurances from the Bank of Ghana regarding efforts to stabilise prices and support economic growth, petroleum pricing remains a critical issue for the downstream sector. Pricing decisions directly affect volumes sold, profitability and market share in an increasingly competitive environment.
For consumers, the coming pricing window will test whether market competition can offset global and currency-driven pressures — or whether modest increases at the pumps become unavoidable.
