Ghana’s external position has strengthened significantly in the first half of 2026, with a surge in gold and crude oil exports helping the country record a US$4.3 billion merchandise trade surplus.
The performance has prompted Fitch Solutions to substantially upgrade its forecast for Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus to 7.8 per cent of GDP, from its earlier projection of 5.2 per cent.
The research arm of Fitch Ratings said the first-half trade surplus was far above the historical average, providing a stronger-than-expected boost to Ghana’s external accounts.
According to Fitch Solutions, the US$4.3 billion surplus recorded in the first six months of the year compares with an average merchandise trade surplus of only about US$700 million recorded during the first halves of the years between 2016 and 2025.
The sharp improvement was largely driven by robust gold exports and increased crude oil shipments, which generated substantial foreign exchange earnings for the country.
Fitch Solutions said the performance exceeded its expectations and warranted the upward revision of its full-year forecast.
“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” the firm said.
GOLD REMAINS KEY TO EXTERNAL EARNINGS
The latest figures highlight the continued importance of Ghana’s commodity exports to its balance of payments.
Gold, in particular, remains a major source of foreign exchange and has played a central role in strengthening the country’s external position.
Higher gold export earnings, alongside stronger crude oil shipments, have helped generate a substantial inflow of foreign currency at a time when Ghana continues to focus on rebuilding its external buffers following years of economic and debt-related pressures.
The stronger trade position also provides greater support for the country’s ability to meet its external obligations and finance imports.
However, the heavy dependence on commodities means the improvement remains exposed to movements in global commodity prices and production levels.
SURPLUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
Fitch Solutions expects Ghana’s external position to remain favourable into 2027, although it projects some moderation in the current account surplus.
The firm nevertheless expects the balance to remain sizeable, suggesting that Ghana could continue to benefit from strong export earnings beyond 2026.
The latest projection therefore represents a significant improvement in the outlook for Ghana’s external sector.
The US$4.3 billion first-half trade surplus provides a substantial buffer and demonstrates the strength of the country’s export performance so far this year.
However, sustaining the gains will depend on Ghana’s ability to maintain strong export volumes, maximise foreign exchange earnings from its natural resources and reduce vulnerabilities associated with fluctuations in international commodity prices.
For now, the combination of strong gold and oil exports has given Ghana a considerably stronger external position than previously anticipated, with Fitch Solutions now expecting the country to close 2026 with a current account surplus equivalent to 7.8 per cent of GDP.
