Ghana’s economy is poised to maintain modest momentum in 2025, with Fitch Solutions’ research arm, BMI, projecting a GDP growth of 4.2%, slightly ahead of both the government’s and the IMF’s 4% estimates.
This forecast, published in BMI’s latest Ghana Country Risk Report, reflects confidence in the stabilising influence of rising gold prices and lower energy costs, even as broader global trade tensions and internal economic tightening weigh on the economy.
“Despite headwinds, we expect gold export gains to cushion the impact of slowing oil production and tighter credit conditions,” the report stated. It noted that gold’s rally would drive Ghana’s current account surplus to an estimated 6.9% of GDP—its highest on record—helping to stabilise the cedi and reinforce external reserves.
The projected growth marks a deceleration from the 5.7% expansion recorded in 2024, which benefited from pre-election fiscal stimulus. With that stimulus now wound down, the government and international partners are banking on structural reforms and disciplined fiscal policy to sustain momentum.
IMF Mission Chief for Ghana, Mr. Stéphane Roudet, reinforced the importance of sticking to the US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme. Speaking to journalists during the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, Roudet stressed that long-term stability hinges on the government’s ability to implement agreed reforms.
“As the economy stabilizes, inflation eases, and deficits are narrowed, investor confidence should grow,” he noted, expressing optimism that such developments would attract private sector investment across multiple sectors—not just in extractives or energy.
Ghana’s Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, has committed to meeting the IMF’s programme targets while restoring the country’s creditworthiness. In the 2025 Budget, he unveiled the government’s flagship 24-hour economy strategy—a bold bid to transform Ghana into an export-driven industrial economy through full utilisation of human and natural resources.
Dr. Forson said the policy is intended to generate jobs and tackle the country’s longstanding structural economic bottlenecks.
While growth is expected to slow compared to the previous year, analysts say Ghana’s macroeconomic trajectory is showing signs of cautious optimism, underpinned by improved external conditions, donor confidence, and a commitment to reform.
