Ghana’s economy is expected to maintain solid momentum into 2026, with resilient household spending and a revival in investment activity set to underpin growth, according to international ratings agency Fitch Solutions.
In its latest outlook, Fitch projects real GDP growth to edge up from an estimated 5.8 per cent in 2025 to 5.9 per cent in 2026, even as official data from the Ghana Statistical Service shows a recent moderation in quarterly performance. Economic growth slowed to 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, down from 6.5 per cent in the second quarter, but Fitch views this as a temporary soft patch rather than a reversal of the broader recovery.
The agency identified household demand as the backbone of Ghana’s near-term growth. Consumer spending is expected to remain robust, supported by a sharp easing of inflationary pressures. Average annual inflation is forecast to fall to 9.7 per cent in 2026 from 14.6 per cent in 2025, reflecting a lower effective VAT rate, softer global energy prices and contained depreciation pressures on the cedi.
Although inflation may pick up slightly in the second half of 2026 due to demand-side pressures, Fitch expects it to remain well below recent highs, easing pressure on household budgets. This outlook is further reinforced by the government’s pledge in the 2026 budget to increase public-sector wages by 9.0 per cent, a move Fitch believes will directly boost purchasing power.
Private consumption is projected to grow by a strong 6.5 per cent in 2026, contributing an estimated 5.3 percentage points to overall GDP growth, underscoring the central role of domestic demand in sustaining economic expansion.
Investment conditions are also expected to improve. Fitch noted that the Bank of Ghana’s ongoing monetary easing cycle, marked by substantial policy rate cuts since mid-2025, should encourage private-sector borrowing and capital spending. Planned reforms, including the rollout of the Public-Private Partnership Act and the Corporate Insolvency and Restructuring Act, are expected to strengthen the business environment and lift investor confidence.
In addition, the recapitalisation of key state-owned banks such as the National Investment Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank is expected to expand credit access for small and medium-sized enterprises, providing further impetus to private investment.
On the external front, Fitch said Ghana’s position would benefit from elevated global gold prices and relatively healthy international reserves. These factors are expected to cushion the cedi against sharp volatility, with the currency projected to depreciate at a pace below its long-term average.
Overall, Fitch’s outlook suggests that while growth may no longer be accelerating rapidly, Ghana is entering 2026 with a more stable macroeconomic foundation, driven by stronger consumer confidence, improving investment conditions and easing inflation.
