The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a slowdown in economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa in 2026, alongside rising inflation and widening fiscal pressures in several countries.
In its April 2026 Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook Update, the Fund estimates regional growth will ease to 4.3 percent in 2026, representing a 0.3 percentage point downward revision from its January forecast.
Despite the slowdown, the IMF expects a gradual recovery, with growth projected to rise slightly to 4.4 percent in 2027, while inflation is anticipated to moderate to 3.9 percent by the end of that year under a short-lived shock scenario.
Inflation and Uneven Growth Trends
The report projects median inflation in the region to rise to 5.0 percent by the end of 2026, reflecting persistent price pressures across many economies.
However, the IMF notes significant differences among countries. Oil-exporting economies are expected to record stronger growth, supported by higher export earnings and increased government spending. In contrast, low-income and fragile states—many of them dependent on imports—are projected to experience slower growth due to limited fiscal buffers.
While prices of key commodities such as gold and copper have eased since the onset of global shocks, they remain above 2025 averages, providing some support to resource-rich economies. The Fund also noted that sovereign borrowing costs in the region remain below levels recorded in April 2025, helping to cushion external pressures.
External Balances and Trade Pressures
On external accounts, the IMF projects the region’s median current account deficit to narrow slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2026.
This improvement is expected to be driven mainly by oil-exporting countries, which could see gains of about 1.1 percentage points of GDP due to higher oil prices. Non-oil resource-intensive economies are also expected to benefit modestly from stronger metal prices.
However, non-resource-intensive countries are projected to face worsening external positions, with deficits increasing by about 1.4 percentage points of GDP.
Fiscal Challenges Intensify
The report also warns of growing fiscal pressures, with median fiscal deficits expected to rise to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from 2025.
Oil-exporting countries are projected to see the largest deterioration, with deficits widening by about 1.0 percentage point of GDP. In contrast, non-oil resource-intensive economies are expected to record slight improvements, while non-resource-intensive countries remain broadly stable.
The IMF cautioned that continued controls on fuel prices in several countries are delaying the full pass-through of global price changes. While this is helping to contain inflation in the short term, it is increasing subsidy costs and fiscal risks.
Countries such as Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Rwanda, Senegal, and Togo are maintaining regulated pump prices, which the Fund says may ease immediate inflationary pressures but could lead to higher fiscal burdens and potential future price adjustments.
Outlook
Overall, the IMF’s assessment points to a region navigating mixed economic conditions—balancing modest growth prospects and stabilising inflation against rising fiscal and external vulnerabilities in several economies.
