The African Development Bank (AfDB) has projected that Ghana’s economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, driven largely by strong mining sector output and ongoing fiscal reforms, according to its latest African Economic Outlook report unveiled at the AfDB Annual Meetings in Abidjan.
While optimistic about Ghana’s medium-term prospects, with growth forecast to reach 4.8% in 2026, the AfDB also cautions that inflationary pressures and climate-related risks could undermine economic stability. The Bank’s inflation projection for 2025 stands at 15.4%, notably higher than the government’s official target and more conservative estimates by local authorities.
The report places Ghana’s anticipated fiscal deficit at 3.5% of GDP for 2025, with continued debt restructuring expected to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 66.4%. However, the AfDB stresses that these improvements depend on sustained fiscal discipline and effective public financial management.
Notably, the AfDB flagged climate variability, especially its impact on Ghana’s cocoa production, as a significant downside risk. Coupled with potential global shocks such as U.S. tariff increases, these factors could disrupt export earnings and overall growth momentum.
Comparing forecasts, the AfDB’s growth outlook is more optimistic than the World Bank’s and largely aligns with the IMF and Ghana government projections. Yet, the divergence on inflation expectations highlights ongoing challenges in managing price stability amid external pressures.
As Ghana pursues economic recovery, the AfDB underscores the critical importance of policy consistency and reform momentum to bolster resilience and secure sustainable growth in the face of mounting risks.
