Political scientist Smart Sarpong says the outcome of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer race may ultimately hinge on undecided delegates and growing sensitivity to regional representation within the party.
Speaking on the Asaase Breakfast Show, the Kumasi Technical University researcher noted a clear difference between public opinion and internal party dynamics, where decision-making is concentrated among delegates.
He explained that while a significant portion of the general public—about 34.5%—remains uncertain about their preferred candidate, all party delegates appear aware of the contenders, though roughly 17.7% are yet to make a final choice.
Sarpong introduced what he described as a “mindset analysis” model, suggesting that beyond competence and campaign strength, regional equity could become a decisive factor if leading aspirants are seen as equally capable.
According to his findings, a majority of delegates—about 82.9%—support the idea that regions which have not previously produced a president should be given consideration in leadership selection.
He argued that if candidates reach what he called a “level of equivalent effectiveness,” where no single contender clearly stands out in capability, delegates may lean toward balancing regional representation within the party.
Such a trend, he warned, could influence how candidates from historically dominant political regions are perceived, while strengthening the chances of aspirants from less represented areas.
Beyond geography, Sarpong said delegates are also weighing factors such as communication ability, loyalty to the party, leadership experience, and capacity to unify internal factions.
Despite these emerging patterns, he stressed that the race remains open and fluid, with grassroots engagement expected to significantly reshape delegate preferences in the lead-up to the final decision.
