Ghana’s improving debt position and stronger investor confidence have emerged as key indicators of the country’s economic recovery, with the World Bank maintaining its 2026 growth forecast at 4.8%.
In its October 2026 Africa Economic Update: Building AI-Readiness report, the World Bank said Ghana’s economic outlook remained positive, supported by fiscal consolidation, rapid disinflation and progress in the country’s debt restructuring programme.
The Bank projects real GDP growth to increase marginally to 4.9% in 2027 and 5.0% in 2028, following growth of 5.8% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025.
A major improvement highlighted by the World Bank is Ghana’s debt outlook.
Public debt declined from 70.1% of GDP at the end of 2024 to 48.8% at the end of 2025, although it is estimated to rise moderately to 52.6% of GDP in 2026.
The overall fiscal deficit is also projected to narrow to 2.2% of GDP this year.
The World Bank said Ghana’s reclassification to moderate risk on both its external and overall debt positions during the 2026 Article IV consultation marked a significant improvement in the country’s debt sustainability outlook.
It noted that Ghana had become the first country since the 2022 debt distress wave to exit the high-risk debt category altogether.
Debt restructuring boosts investor confidence
The completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026, alongside continued fiscal consolidation under the International Monetary Fund programme, has contributed to an improvement in investor sentiment.
Ghana’s sovereign spreads fell sharply from about 2,828 basis points in 2023 to 239 basis points by August 2026, reflecting the improved perception of the country’s creditworthiness.
The World Bank attributed the decline to the completion of the debt restructuring, sustained fiscal adjustment under the IMF programme and the subsequent improvement in Ghana’s debt sustainability classification.
Economy continues to expand
Despite the moderation in the annual growth forecast, economic activity remained relatively strong during the second quarter of 2026.
The economy grew by 6.0% year-on-year, compared with 6.6% during the same period in 2025.
The expansion was driven largely by domestic demand, which increased by 11.2%, while investment surged by 53.0%.
The services sector remained the largest contributor to growth, expanding by 8.0% and accounting for nearly three-fifths of overall GDP growth.
Information and communications technology was among the strongest-performing areas, recording growth of 30.9%.
Industrial growth also improved to 4.3%, from 2.4% a year earlier, helped by increased oil and gas production.
Agriculture, however, recorded weaker growth of 3.9%, down from 7.1%, largely because of a sharp contraction in fishing activity.
Inflation falls sharply
The World Bank also pointed to rapid disinflation as another major improvement in Ghana’s economic conditions.
Inflation is projected to fall to 8.0% in 2026, from 14.2% in 2025 and 22.9% in 2024.
The Bank expects inflation to remain around 8.0% through 2028.
Despite the decline, the Bank of Ghana has maintained its policy rate at 14%, reflecting a cautious approach to risks surrounding inflation and economic growth, including possible pressures from global energy prices.
Meanwhile, Ghana’s private sector showed signs of renewed expansion, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 50.8 in August from 49.2 in July. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in private-sector activity.
AI seen as new growth opportunity
Looking beyond the immediate recovery, the World Bank identified artificial intelligence as a potential driver of more inclusive growth and poverty reduction.
The Bank cautioned that the benefits of AI could remain concentrated among households and businesses that already have access to technology unless digital connectivity and opportunities are expanded.
Its simulations indicate that broadly shared AI gains could lift three times as many people out of poverty compared with a scenario in which the benefits are concentrated among households already positioned to use the technology.
The World Bank therefore sees wider access to digital infrastructure, technology and AI-enabled economic opportunities as critical to ensuring that Ghana’s economic recovery translates into broader improvements in living standards.
