Ghana is emerging as one of Africa’s most promising economic performers heading into 2026, with Fitch Solutions projecting that the country will outstrip several major emerging markets despite escalating security concerns in the Sahel.
At the 2026 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) post-budget forum on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, Fitch Solutions’ Assistant Director, Mike Kruiniger, highlighted that Ghana’s solid economic recovery in 2025 has set the stage for an even stronger performance next year.
Kruiniger said Ghana’s economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, noting that real GDP growth is expected to rise from 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026—placing the country ahead of global heavyweights such as mainland China, Indonesia, and Kenya.
He attributed this acceleration to robust private consumption and a renewed rebound in fixed investment after the severe contraction recorded in 2023. He added that over the medium term, Ghana is likely to maintain growth rates averaging around 5%, supported by expanding domestic demand and improving macroeconomic indicators.
“Ghana’s growth outlook is not just positive by its own historical standards; it stands out sharply when compared to many of its emerging-market peers,” he stressed.
But even as the macroeconomic momentum strengthens, Fitch Solutions warns that Ghana’s progress could be tested by growing instability across the Sahel. According to Kruiniger, the expanding footprint of Islamist militant groups in countries such as Mali poses a rising threat to West African coastal states, including Ghana.
He noted that although Ghana has so far avoided major spillovers—thanks to favourable northern terrain and stronger state control compared to countries like Benin—the risk environment is tightening.
If security threats intensify, Ghana may be forced to allocate more resources to military expenditure, which is currently among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. Such a shift could strain the fiscal space needed to sustain growth-friendly policies.
“Our baseline expectation is that Ghana will remain protected from large-scale attacks,” Kruiniger said. “However, a breach in the northern corridor would compel the government to significantly boost defence spending to shield its economy.”
Fitch Solutions concludes that while Ghana’s economic narrative for 2026 is one of clear outperformance, sustaining this trajectory will depend on how well the country navigates the delicate balance between growth ambitions and emerging regional security hazards.
